Analyst: Grand Theft Auto IV could sell over 9 million by October

Take-Two is taking its fair share of lumps recently thanks to pressing concerns like shareholder discontent over how Electronic Arts' takeover offer is being handled, but the publisher can still look forward to better news later this year once Grand Theft Auto IV begins shipping this April 29th. According to analysts like Wedbush Morgan Securites' Michael Pachter, Take-Two can expect great things indeed from GTA IV; the investment banking firm predicts Take-Two will sell a handsome 6 million copies of the game during its first week alone, with sales figures hitting up to a potential 9 million units before the end of the publisher's fiscal year this October 31st.

GTA IV is easily Take-Two's most important game this year. In fact, Pachter believes income generated from the game will contribute to pretty much all of Take-Two's operating profit:

We estimate that GTA IV is likely to sell over 9 million units during the fiscal year, and think that the company will likely ship 6 million units in its first week, and will sell 3/4 of that amount in a brief period of time. The performance of GTA IV will thus be responsible for more than 100% of Take-Two’s earnings for the year, and the game is likely to mask the underperformance of the rest of Take-Two’s portfolio. We think that GTA IV will generate around $450 million of the company’s expected $1,073 million publishing revenue this year, and will generate an operating profit of around 30%, or $135 million. At the high end of company guidance, Take-Two will generate operating income of around $130 million, meaning that the game is responsible for 103% of overall company operating profit.

Unsurprisingly, Pachter is less enthusiastic over Take-Two properties outside of GTA IV. The analyst notes that while the industry has a whole has grown by over 58 percent over the last two years, Take-Two has continually lost marketshare in the great publishing race.  Take-Two has recently posted a larger net loss than expected for the first fiscal quarter ending January even with higher-than-expected sales, but at the same time strong pre-orders for GTA IV have encouraged the publisher to nevertheless maintain a strong forecast for the rest of its fiscal year.