New Super Mario Bros. 1UP Mushroom House Odds Guide v1.2

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===================================================== New Super Mario Bros. - 1UP Mushroom House Odds Guide ===================================================== v1.2 By Chris Graham somestrangeflea@hotmail.co.uk I. Foreword II. Version History III. Introduction IV. Chance Lookup Table A. Arranged by Prize Value (Lowest First) B. Arranged by Chance (Highest First) V. Detailed Chance A. 1UP B. 2UP C. 3UP D. 4UP E. 5UP F. 6UP G. 7UP H. 8UP I. 9UP J. 10UP K. 11UP L. 12UP VI. Legal Notice ----------- I. Foreword ----------- Hey! It's me again with a guide on the odds of winning 1UPs from the Mushroom House in New Super Mario Bros. If you have any problems/suggestions then feel free to e-mail me at any of the above e-mail addresses. Have fun! ------------------- II. Version History ------------------- v1.2 - 5.62kb - Updated contact info. v1.1 - 5.67kb - Info added at top of section V v1.0 - 5.18kb - All information added. ----------------- III. Introduction ----------------- In the mushroom house, six cards are displayed, these are: 1UP 1UP 1UP 3UP x2 Bowser The cards are then mixed. The player selects cards until the Bowser card is selected, when the player must stop. The x2 card doubles everything the player has selected so far. ----------------------- IV. Chance Lookup Table ----------------------- These chances are worked out in Section V. The chance has been calculated under the assumption that neither the x2 nor the Bowser card can be selected as the first card. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ A. Arranged by Prize Value (Lowest First) +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Prize|Chance -----|------ 1UP |15% 2UP |11.25% 3UP |10% 4UP |11.25% 5UP |10% 6UP |10% 7UP |6.25% 8UP |3.75% 9UP |7.5% 10UP |6.25% 11UP |3.75% 12UP |5% ------------ +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ B. Arranged by Chance (Highest First) +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Prize|Chance -----|------ 1UP |15% 2UP |11.25% 4UP |11.25% 3UP |10% 5UP |10% 6UP |10% 9UP |7.5% 7UP |6.25% 10UP |6.25% 12UP |5% 8UP |3.75% 11UP |3.75% Suprisingly, there is a higher chance of you winning the highest possible prize, 12UP, than winning either 8UP or 11UP. Also, despite the fact that there is only one scenario in which this is possible, the chances of winning 1UP are higher than winning anything else. ------------------ V. Detailed Chance ------------------ The chance of any given scenario occuring is the chance of each card in that scenario showing up, multiplied together. The total chance of winning a prize is found by finding the chance of each of the scenarios in which that prize can be won, and adding them all together. The amount of 1UPs will be stated, with the scenarios in which they can be won given below them. At the bottom of the section is the overall chance of winning that prize. ++++++ A. 1UP ++++++ 1UP, Bowser = 3 in 20 Total Chance = 15% ++++++ B. 2UP ++++++ 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 3 in 40 1UP, x2, Bowser = 3 in 80 Total Chance = 11.25% ++++++ C. 3UP ++++++ 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 20 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40 1UP, x2, 1UP, Boswer = 1 in 40 Total Chance = 10% ++++++ D. 4UP ++++++ 3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 3 in 80 1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 3 in 80 1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 40 1UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 Total Chance = 11.25% ++++++ E. 5UP ++++++ 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 40 1UP, x2, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 Total Chance = 10% ++++++ F. 6UP ++++++ 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 3UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, x2, 3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, x2, 1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 Total Chance = 10% ++++++ G. 7UP ++++++ 3UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, x2, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, x2, 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, x2, 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 Total Chance = 6.25% ++++++ H. 8UP ++++++ 3UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 3UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 3UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 Total Chance = 3.75% ++++++ I. 9UP ++++++ 3UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40 1UP, 3UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 40 3UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, 3UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 Total Chance = 7.5% +++++++ J. 10UP +++++++ 3UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 3UP, x2, 1UP, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 Total Chance = 6.25% +++++++ K. 11UP +++++++ 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, x2, 1UP, Bowser = 1 in 80 Total Chance = 3.75% +++++++ L. 12UP +++++++ 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, 1UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 1UP, 1UP, 1UP, 3UP, x2, Bowser = 1 in 80 Total Chance = 5% ---------------- VI. Legal Notice ---------------- This guide is not to be sold, in whole or part, in any way. The list of sites allowed access to this guide is: http://www.neoseeker.com http://www.ign.com If this guide is on any other website, contact me immediately. Thank You Copyright 2007 Chris Graham

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