Networks won't be in place to "technically, economically and safely digitally distribute full games" anytime soon
North American gaming retail giant GameStop is sharing Electronic Arts' reservation over a possible decline of boxed retail games now that digital distribution is starting to gain ground as a new way for gamers to get their fix. Like EA, GameStop CEO Dan DeMatteo believes that until the infrastructure for digital networks improves over time, it will remain impractical to download full console games which tend to increase in file size as development for a given generation consoles mature. DeMatteo predicts that digitally distributing full games "technically, economically and safely" won't likely be widespread until 2020 to 2025 at the earliest.
There are factors outside of bandwidth as well. DeMatteo explains that console game publishers are still adverse to the idea of storing full games on hard drive, fearing greater opportunities for piracy of their titles. Additionally, smaller/independent publishers looking to go the digital distribution route could still be held back the console giants themselves. According to DeMatteo, it's all about the inherent value of a digitally distributed title versus a retail box copy, and not just to the consumer:
"Consumers have been conditioned that their video games have residual value, just like a car. The real cost of a game today isn't $59 but $39. Nothing that has been digitally distributed retains the same value as a retail version; it's always less. Let's say a retail game is $39. Microsoft and Sony are the gatekeepers for their consoles. And if you're a third party that should scare the hell out of you because that's the only way to get to your customer. They'll take 10 to 15 percent. Video game publishers sell me games today for $48 wholesale. If they go direct to the customer they'll probably get about $30 for them. They'll get less for the game if they bypass retail."
Of course, you can imagine GameStop would vouch for the continued success of retail distribution, particularly in used games! EA has already expressed some dismay with the proliferation of the second hand game sales which retailers like GameStop find so lucrative. That said, the publisher and retailer find common ground in pointing toward digital distribution as a means to enhance the value and longevity of games through digital add-ons.
Not every person has the same super fast broadband speed which is also tremendously expensive to get.
At the moment, buying boxed games from retail shops is the best option for people who don't have fast broadband.
Note: In Australia, only just a tiny fraction of people have fast broadband to play on-line games, most of the people rely on the traditional methods of buying second-hand games from EB & GAMES. Digital download for full console game is really far far far far away............for 90% of Aussies. Possibly in after 2045, I suppose.