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EA: Digital distribution won't diminish retail game sales for the next 20 years
Leo Chan - Friday, August 29th, 2008 | 12:00PM (PT)


Games are getting bigger, and broadband doesn't appear to be growing fast enough for potentially larger downloads

The convenience and growing library of standout titles is helping digital distribution across online gaming services like Steam, Xbox Live, and the PlayStation Network make a name for itself, supported for example by the recent success of Bionic Commando: Rearmed. However, Electronic Arts Europe's senior VP and general manager Jens Uwe Intat believes sales of boxed games through traditional retail avenues is in no danger of going the way of the dodo for another twenty years or so thanks to digital distribution.

The key sticking point is the ever increasing filesizes for newer video games. While these are on the rise (depending on what developers want to do with their titles), gamers in North America generally won't have access to the sort of bandwidth from North American ISPs needed to download such games outright. That is to say, broadband won't get fast enough anytime soon for gamers to download meatier games at an appreciable rate:

"The reason why I'm so convinced is that I've always been saying our softare developers eat up storage space so much quicker than telcos can build distribution. You can always see technological quantum leaps in terms of digital distribution capacity, it's all true, but if you see how those guys increase the size of games... it's just unbelievable.

"The content size of games, say Need for Speed, the size of the open world that you can use increases - so you just need more and more storage space, which is going to, again, make the pipeline a big bottleneck."

Of course, that will depend on whether or not developers choose to go all out with the production values. It's definitely possible to tailor games for digital distribution, but for the moment these are generally not the sort of mainstream releases like many of the titles sold at retail.

EA intends to treat digital distribution as a supporting channel for additional content and services.  In EA's bigger picture, both distribution channels will coexist to bring additional value to their titles, hopefully discouraging second-hand sales which the publisher continues to see as a "critical situation" involving off-the-record sales of their intellectual property.  Otherwise, EA would have to get "confrontational" with retailers who rely on second-hand game sales as an important revenue stream.


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Comments:

August 30th, 2008 12:24AM(PT)
Basekid
I don't think it is actually speed that will be a problem, rather the caps. Here in New Zealand for example the average cap lies around 15gb a month. So 1 game download would probably eat up 1/3 of your monthly cap easily.

I'm sticking to retail!
August 30th, 2008 3:40PM(PT)
GG2K8
North America has traditionally not had any caps, the first one being VERY recent, a 250GB cap by Comcast (And I truely hope someone kills a bunch of these asshole corporate heads, or I wish I would grow enough balls to do it myself). I am hoping this cap would fuel Fios expansion (Verizon, get off your ass!), or maybe U-Verse (inferior to Fios, but better than what 90% of America has now). While I'm no expert or anything, I'm QUITE certain they are wrong. Broadband speed is getting better in America, and definately not remaining stagnant as implied by this article.

Fios 20/20 Mbits (a very popular package) would download a 10GB game in 1 hour, 8 minutes, and 16 seconds (assuming the server can up it at 20Mbits). This will (hopefully) be spreading rather quickly throughout America (I'm hearing %50 of American homes should be able to sign up for Fios by the end of 2010, but the way it's going, that seems a little high - still though...)

While I don't know if they're gonna last or not, the reason they last is not going to be broadband speeds are too low...

From what I understand, theorheticly the max bandwidth limit for the infrastructure Verizon uses for Fios to each home can download at 622Mbits. If they were to max that out, that same 10GB game would download in less than 2 minutes and 12 sconds.
August 30th, 2008 6:57PM(PT)
tallteen86
It isn't so much that they're stagnant, but tha they aren't developing fast enough to meet the demands of people, to make DLing large games practical.

Not THAT many people will have services that'll allow you to DL said 10GB+ games within a time that would be faster than simply going to a nearby store to pick up a copy of the game.

DL limit is misleading, a lot of people don't see that sort of speed unless they're lucky.

Not to mention we'll need a lot of storage space. I doubt Sony/MS will up the HDD storage THAT much in the next generation. I am guessing around 160GB or so to start with....Sounds like a lot, but you'd only be able to hold about 14 of those 10GB games (remember, the listed storage size is misleading as well). And that is just assuming the next release of games are actually small enough to be around that size (some will be, I'm sure).

Also, here in Canada? My stepdad is paying about $100 (I think), for a 600KBps (about 4.8Mbps) connection...Not everyone will have access to the sort of speeds necessary.

TBH, I doubt Digital distribution will take over the gaming market within a 20 year period, like the guy says.

Over a year ago, I think, I heard about this guy who developed a way to optimize information communication so speeds would be effectively about 100x what it is at current, and all it requires on the user's end, is a new modem. Wonder if that'll pan out....
August 30th, 2008 7:53PM(PT)
GG2K5
Right now not many people have access to high bandwidth services like Fios (it's 14% of the population have access to it in the United States, I don't know what they do in Canada, it may be a different situation over there), but as I was just saying, things are changing fast. If in 2 1/2 years they'll grow from 14% to 50%, I'm betting almost all of America (and probably Canada too, but I'm only speaking for America) will be covered in 20 years, and by that time they may easily offer 100Mbit, 200Mbit, 300Mbit services, and in the big cities there'll be something even better (as they could offer as high as 622Mbits).

And as for storage space... What kind of argument is that? People who are going to store their games on DVDs and stuff will, and people who will store it on their HD will. If you don't have much HD space, put them on DVDs (cost less than the gas to go buy a game, and less than the tax for it). If you have the HD space, leave it on the HD.

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