Neoseeker : News : Miyamoto unconcerned by Wii U sales, says Nintendo didn't focus on online for sake of mass appeal
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lKasHl Mar 18, 13
quote Dynamite
I don't think it's realistic to expect this latest generation of consoles to be flying off the shelf akin to the 360/PS3. If you think about it, we've hit the point now where there's some serious diminishing returns in the graphics improvement area. No longer are we seeing the huge discrepancy in graphics like we did from PSX-> PS2 or even PS2 -> PS3/360. This is no longer a point on which sales hinge therefore not a major reason for people to rush out and buy them.

I think it will be a little harder for Nintendo/MS/Sony to sell this emerging generation of consoles because, largely, people are already happy with the features they have. There's only so much you can put into a console and the fact that they already act as entertainment/media hubs, being able to access TV on demand, stream stuff from the Internet, interact with social media, etc. will mean that the more casual audience will see very little reason to switch out their PS3 for a PS4 or 720.

Innovation in games, providing more obscure, but useful, features and attempting to refine existing ones will essentially be what draws people to the next gen. of console. In my opinion, uptake will be slow for all of the new gens. as the gap between them and the current generation is probably smaller than it has ever been.
The uptake will be there, in the end it ultimately comes down to software support. As you pointed out people aren't obligated to upgrade on the basis of improved graphics, especially since its a logarithmic improvement which will continue to see diminishing returns. Once developers drop support on the current gen and game releases start to dry up though, it'll come down to either playing the same limited catalogue of games over and over or upgrading to the latest console and having compatibility with the newest releases. Really I dont know anyone who would be content with the first option (maybe ultra casual gamers?) so I'd say 99% of gamers will eventually be forced to upgrade.

Its similar to what we saw with the PS2/PS3 where PS2 sales exceeded PS3 sales for at least the first few years but ultimately ended up with a massive uptake.

Give it until about the first call of duty that goes next gen exclusive is released
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Zombie_Barioth Mar 18, 13
Nobody is saying there will be no uptake, but it will be really slow. Too slow in fact, to drop current gen consoles for a while. Even if developers drop support for them theres easily enough across the board to keep you busy. Development costs are too high to rely on whats likely to be a rather small install base.

Things like video streaming or skype aren't new anymore and just about everything does it these days so those things are no longer selling points, like how the PS3 was the cheapest blue-ray player at the time.
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lKasHl Mar 19, 13
Woops my bad, read that pretty late at night, got mixed up on technicalities, thanks for pointing it out
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Dynamite Mar 19, 13
lKasHl: For sure. I was pretty much referring to the initial uptake in my post. It is an inevitability that as software developers move away from the older generation and onto the new hardware exclusively that people will then follow. This won't happen right away though as they'll still be keen to prioritize releasing games for the systems with the largest market share. It also takes a considerable period to get familiar with the new development tools, etc.

I'm not saying the new generation will flop. I'm just saying that I'm not surprised by the Wii U's frequency of sales up to this point and I think when the PS4 and 720 are released the sales figures won't look as bad as I think you'll see a similar sale rate for those. Miyamoto is right, imo, to be unconcerned with sales figures at this stage. People suggesting that he should be at this point are missing the wider picture.
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SpOOK Mar 19, 13
That's a major thing to take into consideration at this point: right now, WiiU's biggest adversary is speculation of its competition. Until we (as consumers) actually get our hands on PS4/neXt box, all we can really do is compare specs, and not even truly.

I don't think Sony and Microsoft are going to release a complete package either. I'm sure there will be plenty of issues with their consoles as well, at least initially. By that time, Nintendo should have enough of a headstart in the software arena to set themselves apart, as they have in the past.
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bbb7002004 Mar 19, 13
It will be quite interesting to see the uptake of the new consoles. I too think that both the PS4 and the next Xbox will have launches very similar to the Wii U, sellouts at launch then major slumps until software can be developed. The amount of detail required by HD games takes either a huge amount of time or a huge amount of people, both of which costs lots of money that simply can't be re-cooped on install bases of a few million.

I just hope this generation is kinder to developers than the previous, especially the middle tier guys. The number of studios that shuttered the past 8 years is just plain ridiculous.
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lKasHl Mar 20, 13
Dynamite yeah sorry about that, was pretty late at night so I missed the finer points in your argument! Will be sure to double check past 1am in the future
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