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I have been playing skyrim since Christmas and have rarely got bored of it for long - I have also (like all other PS3 skyrim players) have been looking forward to the release of Dawnguard on PS3 - however - i have an idea of programming and the possible problems that can occur thanks to my last 4 years in college and Uni learning the trade of computer programming.
The following is mostly speculation based on my knowledge of computers etcI don't want Bethesda to NOT release dawnguard as it looks to be a great new chapter in the story. but looking at the clues given from the different tweets and messages that bethesda have given us there is a high possibility that the issues with dawnguard are more severe than some people think.
People have seen frame rates drop, floating characters, flying mammoths (well i have anyway) as well as couriers appearing to deliver a message completely naked except for a bonnet.
I have also had issues with colour distortions due to having multiple save files. Now where as some people may see a flying mammoth as a small problem its actually not good at all it indicates a loading or spawning error this usually means there is a back log of error messages going on behind the scenes and the only reason the game is continuing and not crashing is because it is doing it's best to try and fix the problems without causing too much strain on the system. This will however have the opposite effect if played for a long stretch of time as the error log will just keep growing. Most likely the error log will be deleted when you turn the game off however the issues you face with the game will continue until you restart the machine or at least the game.
with this information in mind the added dawnguard expansion would heavily increase the memory size of your save files regardless of the save file being loaded or not - Its important to bear in mind the hard-drive.
The most likely issue is that those PS3's with a large hard-drive space will operate just fine with the expansion however those with a smaller HD will struggle to the point of self destructing.
People are getting frustrated at bethesda for not releasing it but look at the bigger picture - is it right that some PS3 users can have assess to the expansion but others cant and is it bethesda's fault if some PS3's (that sony customers could have bought) cant cope with the file sizes or is it the fault of the PS3 owner for not getting a bigger memory console.
Bethesda are still working on releasing the expansion but have said there are no promises at this time. I believe this is down to the fact that even with sonys help they cannot find a way to fix this issue easily.
On the plus side the Hearth Fire expansion will be considerably smaller and i believe should be able to operate on PS3 quite easily.
Feel free to comment below but just keep in mind this is an issue that may not be able to be resolved.
My final words are : Expect the worst then if all goes well and it is released you can be pleasantly surprised