I can't figure this one out. I mean look here are my two side's of this predicament.

When Yuan Shao retreated across the River after losing Guandu, he still had the 4 regions of North China in his grasp.

If we assume that Yuan Shao suddenly became more wise and tolerant and didnt listen to slander by Peng Ji about Tian Feng or create succession problems.

It is possible, but unlikely if everything that happened remains the same.

Guandu was Yuan Shao's Chibi. It was a major defeat, but it was possible to rebuild. However, the main problems was the disunity in Yuan Shao's camp, both before and after the defeat. If Yuan Shao was a strong enough willed ruler, he could set his officers straight and settle the ineritance issue.

It is suggested in both the novel and history that Yuan Shao and his descendants had a fighting chance. Cao Cao didn't settle Hebei immediately, it took a few years for him to settle it. If Yuan Shao were more trusting of his officers, and they of him, there would've been less defections. After Chibi, we can not that there were few if any officers going over to Sun Quan or Liu Bei from Cao Cao's camp.

Also, in cleaning up the north, Cao Cao really took advantage between the struggle of Yuan Shang and Yuan Tan. Had they fought together, Cao Cao might not have been able to conquer the north as easily. The extra time could have given Liu Bei a chance to pursuade Liu Biao to attack Cao Cao, or for Sun Quan to capitalize on Cao's absence.
Novelwise, Guo Jia said that Yuan Shang and Yuan Xi could be trouble if Cao Cao pressured them in Gongsun Kang's territory. The Yuan brothers were plotting to assasinate Gongsun Kang and use his army to gain their father's lands back.

Yuan Shao practically had the victory handed to him, it was painful to watch him ruin it so badly. I'd say he had alot more than a fighting chance.

Yuan Shao had about 700,000 troops total before Guan Du and Cao Cao had about 70,000 or 100,000 or something (i think). Yuan Shao lost 200,000 troops in the process of fighting Guan Du battle through people either deserting or being killed. He also lost Yan Liang, Wen Chou, Gao Lan, Zhang He, and several other generals and threw about half his advisors into prison, or killed them.

If he had restored his advisors and just listened to one course of action, he could have won. If he had just stuck to defense, he could have won since Cao Cao was having major supply problems. If he had gotten other rulers involved in the war, he could have won easily. I can't understand why Liu Biao or Ma Teng never attacked... especially Ma Teng since he was involved in the girdle edict.

Even if he just decided to charge the enemy and not use strategy at all, he still would have won. The reason why he lost was because he threatened to put people to death too much over stupid things, and wouldn't listen to anyone. This made about half or more of his force surrender.

Then after half his force surrendered, he died, and since he didn't choose the eldest son there was all kinds of crap between the two sons that were in power, Shang and Tan, Tan surrendered to Cao Cao.

You never know. Nothing is certain in this world except uncertainty. Take into consideration that even the greatest warrior, Lu Bu, was overtaken. He might not have been loved or what not, but defeating him earns some bragging rights, but then again, over-confidence was a weakness shared by many leaders, and still is carried haughtily by the blustering fools of this day and age. Just remind your self, that even the most beautiful flower must eventually wilt.

Even at Yuan Shao's death, the Hebei clan was still much more powerful than Cao Cao. Their main problem is that they cannot be united.... if they unite, they'll always have a chance. Remember Yuan Shang and Yuan Tan actually defeated Cao Cao in Battle of Liyang after Yuan Shao's death....

If he had been able to get rid of all the selfish people in his camp (after all the battle of Guan Du did help to reveal them), then he would have had a pretty good chance of bouncing back at Cao Cao. But I wonder if he had got rid of all of those people, who would he have had left? - probably next to nobody.

Most of the remaining He Bei officers like Shen Pei, Xing Png were with the Brothers. But there were a few who were living in retirement who did not serve any of the Brothers or Yuan Shao. Eg Calvary Commander Cui Yan ( seems to have some admin talents) and Wang Xiu ( military officer).There were also the Wu Huan horsemen, who fought against Cao Cao. Hebei was also quite rich but was subsequently wasted by the civil war between the brothers.

So I guess if Yuan Shao picked the right people he may be able to recover. Even Cao Cao noted that " many indeed were the loyal servants of the north." Though there seemed to have no great generals left.


Did Cao Cao just get lucky?


Gosh... it's hard to stay impartial when answering this question... neh...

Cao Cao was soooo not lucky. He was probably merely lucky in the sense of the word that he was lucky that at the time that he attacked, Yuan Shao was a skeptical rambling idiot who thought everyone else was wrong. It's sort of sad that in fact, everyone was, in fact, wrong, in thinking that they would win the battle.

I'm really sorry that its soo long and all out of order, but i was just thinking and thinking, so yeah sorry for it being out of order.

But seriously, this is a subject i believe needs to be talked about.


This message was edited by Han Ning(moderator) on Feb 19 2007.

yuan shao came very close to taking guan du castle, even after yan liang fell he was still very strong for cao cao. However cao cao launched a sneak attack on his supply depot and destroyed it, yuan shao was ashamed and fled and died of illness, i imagine he thought himself finnished after a defeat like that

Yes, I agree. He probably thought to himself 'Hey, what the hell can I do now? I'll give up'. And he did.

Pretty petty, eh?

yuan shao died at illness 4 years later.... nobody will folow him biguse he and the yuan family was broke and shamed

Um, dwandswforlife you dont have to ident so much on your paragraphs, just hit enter once instead of like three times.

Anyway Yuan Shao could of had a chance IMO, but like the others said Cao Cao attacked the supply depot and took Yan Liang and Wen Chou down with it. When losing two warriors like that Shao felt like he could not win. If he still believed he may have not fell into illness and could of had a comeback.

ok

Well now, look at all he had.

If he had had a bit bigger stomach, and thought of himself more.
He could of came back. Look at all he had.
Hebei, plenty of troops, the other clans in Hebei have all defeated Cao Cao once in there life.
And more and more.


The fact is that he could of came back, but he just didnt make the choice.

I dont get you, you ask like you no nothing about it and then you come back and say like you know everything.

No,
I had theories on both side's, weither he did or didn't come back and rise up, and what would of happened, etc etc
I just wanted to know of all your opinion's on it.
Since i couldn't come to a conlcusion on it.

I think he had a chance
i mean after the sneak attack all cao cao forces would have been attacking the depot so yuan shao could have hurried and attacked the castle evading guan yu by then he would be victorious or not

i really donno

This would make a kick-ass Sun Tzu's question...

Um, I think he had lots of chances to turn it round throughout Guan Du. If he'd just organised his advisers and kept his sons unified by giving Tan the position of heir (he could have taken it away later, after Guan Du was over) he could have survived.

All your arguments are perfectly logical, dwandsw, I can see your problem...

A better warlord, like Sun Jian, Liu Bei or Liu Biao (meh at the last one) may have had a good chance at retaliation. Yuan Shao lacked the skill and decisiveness to make a chance for himself, so in the circumstances...I'd say that he didnt have a chance, but a better man would have done. It doesnt come down to situation, just the leader... for me anyways

Yeah, I agree, though I think it's almost always the leader...

PS: I think Liu Biao had some troubles with his heir as well^^

Well finally someone answered my quest here, will a detailed answer, and now i see that he couldn't. Thanks Maria.

No problemo dwandsw, glad I could help

He had an excellent chance.

His army was still massive, all he had to do was listen to the good advice given to him by his few remaining advisors (Which he hadn't killed), and after his death, make sure the eldest heir got control.

Had the Yuans worked together they could've easily held off Cao Cao, if not push him back.

Ah, but MCTS, thats the flaw in your idea. Yuan Shao couldnt control his advisers, they plotted against each other, and all Yuan Shao did was punish the loser (e.g. Tian Feng).
And he couldnt make sure the eldest got the throne, since he personally backed Yuan Shang to be his heir, and his stubborness prevented him from changing ideas.
And yeah, big army, but bad leader. Cao Cao had an okay sized army, no family troubles, competent advisers, and an excellent leader.

If Yuan Shao was a better leader, there would have been a chance. But he just didnt have a chance as he was incapable.