Note: this is accumulated from the many past threads related to undocumented workers and Arizona's law.
1. Less than 12 million illegals total accumulated over time in a nation of almost 310 million people is not a cause for hysteria. (According to recent estimates by DHS based on data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and other sources, the unauthorized resident alien population totaled 11.6 million in January 2008 and 10.8 million in January 2009. Using data from the March Current Population Survey and other sources, the Pew Hispanic Center has estimated the unauthorized resident population at 11.9 million for March 2008.5 In the case of both DHS and the Pew
Hispanic Center, the 2008 and 2009 estimates are less than the corresponding estimates for 2007(11.8 million by DHS and 12.4 million by Pew). link (26p pdf)) (Note: the numbers are decreasing each year! This because of both fewer illegal immigrants coming and an increase in the number returning home -- in part due to increased enforcement of immigration laws!.) Also, of the nearly 12 million illegal aliens estimated to be living in the U.S. about two million are children who entered the country at a young age with their parents. None of them made an independent decision to break the law; they speak English, and have grown up in this country.
2. Contrary to your assertions, the federal government is enforcing its immigration laws and illegal immigration is declining -- not just nationally, but especially in Arizona1. As Linda Chavez (a conservative Fox News analyist that was a Reagan Cabinet member) writes (emphasis added):
Arizona has just passed the toughest anti-illegal immigrant law in the country — but you have to wonder: Why now? Illegal immigration is down nationally from its high in 2000, with border apprehensions lower than they’ve been in 35 years. There are fewer illegal aliens in the U.S. today than there were just two years ago, from 2008 to 2009, 1.2 million illegal immigrants left. In Arizona alone, more than 100,000 illegal aliens have left the state over the last two years, and the number of illegal aliens caught trying to cross into Arizona has been down by almost 40 percent over the last three years. So why did politicians rush to enact a poorly drafted, arguably unconstitutional law at this moment?
The horrific murder of an Arizona rancher in March provided popular momentum for the legislation. A few days before his murder, Robert Krentz found large quantities of illegal drugs on his property and reported it to the police — certainly motive for the vicious cartels that run drugs across the Mexican border to take a hit out on Krentz. Unfortunately, this one murder has led many people to believe that crime in Arizona is rampant and that illegal immigrants are the cause.
The problem with this theory is that actual crime statistics tell a different story. Crime in Arizona has consistently gone down over the last 15 years, even while illegal immigration was increasing. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports show that the violent crime rate statewide in Arizona has been cut by almost 40 percent since 1995, and property crimes have followed the same pattern.
Violent crime rates — including rape, murder and robbery — haven’t been this low since 1972, and Arizona’s violent crime decreased at a faster rate than the national decline over the same period. More importantly, this decline in violent crime occurred during the very period that Arizona experienced a huge influx of illegal immigrants, with the Arizona border becoming the main source of illegal entry from Mexico in every year since 1998. Whatever other problems Arizonans have with illegal immigrants, they can’t blame them for a non-existent rise in violent crime.
http://www.paragoulddailypress.com/arti ... 941752.txt
Other sources back Ms. Chavez up - both as to Arizona and the nation as a whole.
CNN reports:
[A] look at statistics from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency and the FBI indicate that both the number of illegal crossers and violent crime in general have actually decreased in the past several years.
According to FBI statistics, violent crimes reported in Arizona dropped by nearly 1,500 reported incidents between 2005 and 2008. Reported property crimes also fell, from about 287,000 reported incidents to 279,000 in the same period. These decreases are accentuated by the fact that Arizona's population grew by 600,000 between 2005 and 2008.
According to the nonpartisan Immigration Policy Institute, proponents of the bill "overlook two salient points: Crime rates have already been falling in Arizona for years despite the presence of unauthorized immigrants, and a century's worth of research has demonstrated that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes or be behind bars than the native-born."
The Department of Homeland Security reports the number of unauthorized persons residing in the United States has declined since 2008, which is a reversal of a prior trend of increasing "illegals." The number of unauthorized residents in Arizona has decreased from about 560,000 in 2008 to 460,000 in 2009. pdf The flow of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico in particular has drastically decreased in the last half-decade.
The U.S. government has stepped up enforcement of immigration laws in recent years. See, e.g., pdf U.S. deportations have jumped by more than 60 percent over the past five years. link. According to the DHS's most recent report:
• DHS apprehended 792,000 foreign nationals; 88 percent were natives of Mexico.
• The number of foreign nationals apprehended by the Border Patrol decreased 17 percent from 2007 to 2008.
• ICE detained approximately 379,000 foreign nationals.
• Nearly 359,000 aliens were removed from the United States—the sixth consecutive record high. The leading countries of origin of those removed were Mexico (69 percent), Honduras (8 percent) and Guatemala (7.7 percent).
• 811,000 foreign nationals accepted an offer to return to their home countries without a removal order.
• Expedited removals accounted for 113,500 or 32 percent of all removals.
• DHS removed 97,100 known criminal aliens from the United States.
Also, as of January 2010, the U.S. had built about 640 miles of border fence -- including the portion across Arizona. This largely fullfilled the vision of the Bush Administration (and Congress) of the possible building of up to 700 miles of border fence, from about Tecate, California to about Brownsville, Texas. The Republican Governor of Texas and the two Republican U.S. Senators from Texas opposed the Texas portion of the fence.
What confuses the issue is the Bush Administration switched focus from the physical fence to a "virtual fence" across the whole 2,000 mile southern border. Because of massive problems with the program, President Obama halted funding for the virtual fence on March 16, 2010. Instead, the Obama Administration redeployed $50 million of stimulus funds to other technology to protect the border, including mobile surveillance devices, sensors, radios and laptop computers.
As of 2007, with 11,000 agents and a $3 billion budget, the border patrol was the second largest
military force in the nation trailing only after the U.S. Army. Not county the 24 nations, this is greater than the entire active military of at least 57 nations. link The size and budget of the border patrol has increased since then.
Finally, despite already increased enforcement and decreased illegal immigration, the Obama Administration is drastically increasing enforcement further. President Obama is sending as many as 1,200 National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border and seeking $500 million to fund programs for border protection. link
3. Most unauthorized aliens entered the U.S. many years ago. According to the DHS, about 64% of the total unauthorized alien population in January 2009 entered the United States prior to 2000, 28% entered in the 2000-2004 period, and only about 8% entered since 2004. The Pew Hispanic Center analysis finds that more than half (55%) of the total unauthorized alien population in March 2008 entered the United States prior to 2000, about one third (31%) of the total unauthorized alien population in March 2008 entered the United States in the 2000-2004 period, and that almost half (44%) of the March 2008 unauthorized population arrived in the 2000-2008 years. link (26p pdf).
4. Unauthorized aliens are not all (or even significantly) criminal scum or welfare dependants. The labor force participation rate of unauthorized aliens is high. The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that there were 8.3 million unauthorized aliens in the labor force in 2008, representing four of every five unauthorized adults in the United States that year. This is despite the fact that, under INA §274A, it is unlawful for an employer to knowingly hire, recruit or refer for a fee, or continue to employ an unauthorized alien.(This does not mean "they're stealing our jobs," as this is only 5% of the civilian labor force. Moreover, unauthorized workers were concentrated in low-skilled jobs. According to the Center, two-thirds of unauthorized alien laborers in 2008 were service workers (30%); construction and extraction workers (21%); or production, installation, and repair workers (15%). Unauthorized aliens represented well over their 5% share of the civilian workforce in certain occupations. For example, unauthorized workers accounted for 25% of farm workers; 19% of building, groundskeeping, and maintenance workers; and 17% of construction workers. In other words, approximately 96% of working age migrants employed in the U.S. work largely in sectors that most Americans avoid.)
Most immigrant families have a mixed legal status. 85% of families entering the U.S. illegally have at least one documented member, and 46% of native-born Mexican families have an undocumented member living in this country. 6.7 million adult unauthorized aliens in 2008 (64% of the adult total) lived with a spouse or unmarried partner. Most of these adults (4.3 million) also lived with their minor children. Some of these partners are U.S. citizens or legal residents. According to the Pew Hispanic Center, almost half of all adult unauthorized aliens in 2008 (48%) lived with their minor children. (In other words, nearly half of unauthorized immigrant households (47%) consist of a couple with children. That is a greater share than for households of U.S.-born residents (21%) or legal immigrants (35%).) Many of these children are U.S. citizens. The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that there were 5.5 million children in the United States in 2008 who had at least one unauthorized alien parent. About 1.5 million of these children were unauthorized aliens. According to the Pew Hispanic Center analysis, the remaining 4.0 million children were born in the United States and, thus, were U.S. citizens.
Section 401 of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996 makes unauthorized aliens and certain legal aliens ineligible for any “federal public benefit,” with some limited exceptions. “Federal public benefit” is broadly defined and includes "any retirement, welfare, health, disability, public or assisted housing, postsecondary education, food assistance, unemployment benefit, or any other similar benefit for which payments or assistance are provided to an individual, household, or family eligibility unit by an agency of the United States or by appropriated funds of the United States." link (26p pdf) Thus, undocumented migrants use government services at very low rates. Less than 2% use direct payment welfare programs like Supplemental Security Income or Temporary Assistance to Needy Families. The only programs for which immigrants have higher use rates than the general population are subsidized school lunches and Medicaid, both of which are used overwhelmingly by legal residents on behalf of children.
Undocumented migrants pay more in taxes than they take out in government services. The Center for Migration Studies estimates that undocumented immigrants paid over $16 billion in taxes in 2002—more than the budgets of most states. Migrants contribute $7 billion to the social security system without drawing any major benefits. Over 66% pay income taxes, and almost all migrants pay state sales and excise taxes. Even without considering their positive economic effects, immigrants
contribute $5 billion more to government agencies than they take out.
Undocumented migrants from Mexico spend the vast majority of the $122 billion they earn in the United States. Undocumented migrants have a mixed effect on wages across America. Most mmigrants do not compete for jobs directly with Americans. The National Academy of Sciences found that undocumented immigrants lower native wages by less then 1%. On the other hand, undocumented migrants lower the costs of services that all Americans use.
There is little or no evidence that undocumented aliens commit more crime per person than others in the United States. According to a study published by the National Academy of Sciences in 1997, "it is difficult to draw any strong conclusions on the association between immigration and crime". According to a study by the nonprofit Rand Corp. published in Crime & Delinquency in 2008, illegal immigrants, overall, were not a greater crime risk than the general population of the United States. A 2007 report by the Immigration Policy Center noted that "for every ethnic group, without exception, incarceration rates among young men are lowest for immigrants, even those who are the least educated. This holds true especially for the Mexicans, Salvadorans and Guatemalans who make up the bulk of the undocumented population." Since 1986, the year of the infamous amnesty for illegal immigrants, the U.S. murder rate has plunged by 37 percent. (In Chicago, the number of homicides went from 747 in 1986 to 460 last year.) Forcible rape is down 23 percent. Drunk driving fatalities are off by more than half. You are safer today than you were before all those undocumented interlopers arrived. Much is made of the alleged fact that 30 percent of federal prison inmates are illegal immigrants. Actually, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the correct figure is 14 percent, and many are in just for violating immigration laws. In prisons at the state level, where most violent crime is prosecuted, illegal immigrants account for less than 5 percent of all inmates. Finally, a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas emphasized that "there is no evidence linking immigrant residents—legal or illegal—to higher crime rates more generally" and found "that while migrant apprehensions are correlated with a greater incidence of violent crime, they are not systematically associated with higher rates of property crime. Border patrol enforcement is associated with lower property crime rates but higher violent crime. Interestingly, it is local enforcement (same or neighboring sector) that is correlated with higher violent crime."
5. As already noted, deportation of unauthorized aliens has increased exponentially each of the last few years. Removing all unauthorized aliens is not particularly practical or cost-effective, however. ICE estimates the cost to locate, detain, and deport all of the about 12 million people who are in the United States illegally to be at least $94 billion. link (26p pdf) The Center for American Progress calculates the total cost of mass deportation and continuing border interdiction and interior enforcement efforts would be $285 billion (in 2008 dollars) over five years, even when assuming that 20% of immigrants would leave on their own. See, e.g., link, link (1p, pdf), link (28p, pdf).
6. "Getting tough" on undocumented aliens can backfire. Some researchers suggest that the increased size of the unauthorized resident population between 1986 and 2008 was an inadvertent consequence of border enforcement and immigration control policies. They posit that strengthened border security has curbed the fluid movement of seasonal workers--causing them to stay illegally in the U.S. rather than return across the border.
The current system of legal immigration is also frequently cited as another factor contributing to unauthorized alien residents. There are statutory ceilings that limit the type and number of immigrant visas issued each year, which lead to wait-times for immigrant petitions to be processed and visas to become available to legally come to the United States. According to this interpretation, many foreign nationals who would otherwise prefer to come to the United States legally resort to illegal avenues in frustration. This contributing factor also presupposes that current legal immigration categories are out-dated and unresponsive to labor market needs. Unauthorized aliens, they maintain, have been filling gaps in the U.S. labor market that could be met by new categories of temporary foreign workers or legal immigrants. Of the pending cases awaiting an LPR visa, reportedly almost 2 million are family members of people legally in the United States (i.e., U.S. citizens or LPRs). Many observe that these family members sometimes risk residing without legal status with their family in the United States while they wait for the petitions to be processed or visas to become available.
7. Preventing illegal immigration is not just a matter of "protecting the border." Unauthorized aliens enter the United States in three main ways: (1) some are admitted to the United States on valid nonimmigrant (temporary) visas (e.g., as visitors or students) or on bordercrossing cards and either remain in the country beyond their authorized period of stay or otherwise violate the terms of their admission; (2) some are admitted based on fraudulent documents (e.g., fake passports) that go undetected by U.S. officials; and (3) some enter the country illegally without inspection (e.g., by crossing over the Southwest or northern U.S. border). It is unknown what percentages of the current unauthorized resident population entered the United States in these different ways. In past years, researchers have endeavored to make this type of determination. For example, in 2006, the Pew Hispanic Center estimated that about 40% to 50% of the unauthorized aliens living in the United States that year had entered the country with inspection (i.e., through [1] or [2], above) and that the remaining 50% or more had entered the country without inspection (i.e., through [3], above).
8. Current migration from Mexico represents the latest stage in a continuous flow that has existed for about one hundred years. Barring some interruption during the 1920s, Mexican migration to the United States has been constant and closely linked to U.S. and Mexican development. The present wave of arrivals is less substantial than usually imagined. The number of immigrants from Mexico, as a percent of the national population, is now lower than the number from Ireland in the 1840s or from Southern Europe at the turn of the 20th century. Throughout history, the United States has often encouraged Mexican immigration. In the early 20th century, American businessmen recruited Mexican “enganches” for agricultural work. By the 1940s the U.S. government not only implemented programs to increase the numbers of “bracero” migrants entering the U.S from Mexico but also encouraged them to participate in the war effort. The social networks created by these recruited migrants continue to facilitate the arrival of additional Mexicans to the United States. Mexican migrants learn English at similar rates than previous immigrants from other parts of the world. Although almost 75% of immigrants come with weak English skills, they learn the language quickly after arrival. By the second generation, 90% of undocumented immigrants speak English “very well” and over half prefer English to their native tongue. Although an irregular immigrant status creates disincentives to learn English, undocumented migrants create far more demand for English language classes then are available. Throughout the nation English-as-a-Second-Language programs are oversubscribed.
1For all it's bitching, Arizona is about 7th in the nation in terms of unauthorized alien population. About 4% (or 460,000) of unauthorized aliens in the United States reside in Arizona. Compare this to California (24%, 2.6 million) of of unauthorized aliens in the United States or Texas (16%, 1.7 millliion). link (26p pdf)
Sources (in addition to those directly cited & with some overlap):
Congressional Research Service: Unauthorized Aliens in the United States, 2010 (26p pdf)
Department of Homeland Security: Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2005
Department of Homeland Security: Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2008
Steven Camarota and Karen Jensenius, A Shifting Tide: Recent Trends in the Illegal Immigrant Population, Center for Immigration Studies, July 2009.
Center for American Progress, The Costs of Mass Deportation: Impractical, Expensive, and Ineffective, March 2010(28p pdf)
Congressional Research Service: Unauthorized Aliens Residing in the United States: Estimates Since 1986 (August 25, 2009)
Wayne A. Cornelius, 2001. "Death at the Border: Efficacy and Unintended Consequences of US Immigration Control Policy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 661-685.
Alexander Barnard, “Myths and Realities of Illegal Immigration,” Princeton University Center for Migration and Development, June 25, 2007
Edmonston and Smith, The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration. National Academy Press, 1997
Reason.com, "Immigration and Crime: There's nothing to fear from illegal immigrants," February 22, 2010
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, The Effect of Illegal Immigration and Border Enforcement on Crime Rates along the U.S.-Mexico Border, December 2005(25p pdf)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico_%E2 ... es_barrier
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 03573.html
http://www.dhs.gov/files/programs/borde ... hwest.shtm
http://www.cbp.gov/linkhandler/cgov/new ... ce_map.pdf
We may not only have gone out on a limb here but perhaps an entirely new tree. Or maybe...
